Is Atlanta United back? That is the question that many have asked at different points throughout the season. Well, one thing is certain: Atlanta United is back… to the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs!
After failing to qualify last season amidst a tumultuous season, the Five Stripes punched their ticket this season with a sixth place finish in the Eastern Conference. Now, Atlanta enters a bracket containing 16 of the best teams in the league for a shot at once again hoisting MLS Cup.
But can Atlanta actually make it happen? Let’s dive into some of the things the Five Stripes have going for and against them during the playoffs.
Why the Five Stripes are winning it all
Dynamic attack
As if an MVP-caliber no. 10 and MLS Golden Boot contending striker weren’t enough, Atlanta United went and added two wingers that complement them very well in Xande Silva and Saba Lobjanidze.
Both hit the ground running, with Silva totaling a pair of goals and assists through 10 appearances and Lobjanidze tallying three goals and four assists in nine games.
If those numbers aren’t enough, just take a look at one game where the two combined for three goal contributions.
Now THAT was fun to watch. Some might even say the team’s attack is reminiscent of the 2018 Championship-winning team that scored goals for fun.
However you slice it, Atlanta United is dangerous again. It finished the season 7th in MLS for highest total xG (48.6) and produced 66 goals during the regular season, second only to Columbus Crew’s 67.
With the firepower the Five Stripes are packing in their arsenal, it’s entirely possible to see them outscore opponents if they’re not careful.
Aerial duel proficiency
While Atlanta United’s defense has been far from perfect this season, it can boast an above-average aerial duel success rate. The team won 54.1% of its aerial duels during the regular season, the third-best rate in the league.
The main contributors to this statistic are the center backs: Miles Robinson, who won 73.4% of his aerial duels this season (7th in MLS), Juanjo Purata (60.4%, 30th in MLS) and Luis Abram (57.6%, 77th in MLS).
The Five Stripes’ success in the air is one of the reasons it usually does a good job of defending set pieces. Atlanta conceded just five set piece goals this season, the fifth best record in the league.
But aerial duels are not just about defending, they reflect on the team’s attack, too. After all, a headed goal will usually come from a forward winning an aerial duel against a defender. Giorgos Giakoumakis, Atlanta’s main goalscoring threat, ranked 14th in MLS for duels won among forwards in the league (51.4%).
The ability to win balls in the air is valuable to any team. It means you’re more likely to recover clearances, throw-ins, goal kicks and more. More recoveries means more possession, which means more time on the ball for your team to create chances and less time for your opponents to do the same.
According to a column by StatsPerform discussing duel supremacy, a team that is winning most of its aerial duels has a 39.2% chance to win the game. When the team is losing its aerial duels, that probability drops to 32.6%.
While the difference is subtle, it should paint the picture of how significant aerial duels can be. Especially when it comes to scoring on set pieces. Speaking of which…
Set pieces
I had my suspicions prior to doing the research for this article, but now I can officially confirm it: Atlanta United is statistically one of the deadliest teams in the league on set pieces.
Atlanta United tied St. Louis CITY SC this season for the most non-penalty set pieces in MLS with 15, and, if we’re only looking at road games, the Five Stripes get bumped to first with seven.
I guess there are a few perks to having a deadly free kick taker such as Thiago Almada who is joint-top of the league with Austin FC’s Sebastian Driussi for most non-penalty set-piece goals this season (5).
But the Argentine World Champion isn’t the only one who should take credit for set pieces. Brooks Lennon provided four assists from corner kicks this season, putting him in a three-way tie with Colorado Rapids’ Connor Ronan and New York Red Bulls’ John Tolkin for most in the league. Lennon has been sharing corner kicks with Almada this season, and both are in the 99th percentile for assists with nine and 16, respectively.
And Atlanta has the perfect finisher in Giakoumakis who scored six of his 17 goals this season from headers.
Of the 18 teams that qualified to the playoffs, 13 conceded six or more goals from set pieces this season. This includes several teams in the East and Atlanta’s first playoff opponent, Columbus Crew, which allowed a whopping 11 set piece goals during the regular season.
Do I have you in dreamland yet? Well, time to pull ya right back down to Earth…
Why the Five Stripes will fall short
Road games
To be fair, road games are a struggle for most teams not named FC Cincinnati or Orlando City. Both boasted the best away records in the league of 7-7-3 and 9-4-4, respectively. There’s a reason those two finished the season at the top of the overly competitive Eastern Conference: they were very consistent.
While Atlanta has made a fortress of its home in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, it has run into some trouble getting wins on the road. The Five Stripes held a 3-8-6 record as visitors during the regular season – not the worst record, but not the best.
We just talked about Atlanta’s star-studded attack. Well, that attack was only shut out twice this season and both times were away from home.
Winning on the road wouldn’t be that big a deal if Atlanta United had achieved its goal of top four in the East. However, but placing 6th means the Five Stripes can expect a lot of road games ahead. In fact, the second game of this three-match series against Columbus may be the last time Atlanta play at The Benz this year.
And although the team has been able to grind out results while visiting tough opponents toward the end of the campaign – such as a 2-0 win against Seattle Sounders and 2-2 draws to FC Dallas and FC Cincinnati – the playoffs are different. A draw probably won’t do this team much good seeing as it’s never won a penalty shootout in its history.
If this team is going to be the last one standing, it will have to win on the road consistently. I’m not sure it can at the moment.
*Post publication note: According to the club’s game notes, Atlanta United has only won one road MLS Cup Playoff match ever. It was a 1-0 win against NYCFC on Nov. 4, 2018. Yikes.
Depth
Have you ever had those moments during an Atlanta United match where things aren’t going too well and then you check who’s on the bench that can make an impact and then you just let out a big sigh?
That is the sound of suboptimal squad depth. That is no bueno.
While it’s true that MLS roster and salary cap rules sort of hamstring teams’ abilities to add quality depth, there are teams that have pulled it off. Look no further than the runaway Supporters’ Shield winner FC Cincinnati. Take a look at the starting lineup that faced Atlanta United’s strongest XI (minus Lennon) on Decision Day.
Pretty strong eleven, but let’s look at who isn’t there.
New Designated Player Aaron Boupendza, who has five goals in 608 MLS minutes, was left out of the squad for not reporting back in time after international duty. Wingback Santiago Arias also didn’t play that match after suffering a leg injury representing Colombia.
Those are two key players that Cincinnati didn’t have and were still able to hold an explosive Atlanta side that created 1.8 xG and recorded 13 shots despite playing a man down for most of the second half to a 2-2 draw.
Those are the kinds of things you can do when your team can count on its subs to step in and keep the team in good shape. Think about it this way: does Atlanta United win this game without Giakoumakis (the guy who scored both goals in that game)?
With its latest transfer window, the Five Stripes have been able to get better depth. Bringing Silva and Lobjanidze means Edwin Mosquera and Tyler Wolff can now come off the bench and be effective against tired legs. Both have goals to their name and work well with the game model that Gonzalo Pineda runs. Adding Jamal Thiaré reinforces the striker position which previously only consisted of Giakoumakis and Miguel Berry.
These are good steps in the right direction, but the team has work to do before having the depth of a championship team. I believe many teams in the top seeds of this playoff bracket have better depth than Atlanta, which is going to be a major issue if/when the Five Stripes face them.
Goalkeeping
Atlanta United’s front office – which has received hefty amounts of (justified) criticism for roster decisions in the past – did a really good job with the summer window. It addressed two key areas that needed improvement: the midfield and the wings.
However, there’s one key area that the team wasn’t able to reinforce that it really needs to: the starting goalkeeper.
It might seem like beating a dead horse, but the numbers continue to back it up. Atlanta United has the worst save percentage among all MLS teams (60.3%) despite facing the seventh-least amount of shots on target (126) this season.
Looking at individual numbers, Brad Guzan has the second-lowest save percentage among MLs goalkeepers this season (62%). The only goalkeeper with a lower save percentage is Colorado Rapid’s Marko Ilić (60.9%).
The Five Stripe captain’s penalty stats aren’t any more encouraging as he was unable to save any of the four penalties he faced during the regular season. Playoff matches this year go straight to a penalty shootout if the score is level after 90 minutes, so being able to stop spot kicks could be the difference between advancing and elimination.
You know those matches where Atlanta is attacking for like 90% of the game but still takes a frustrating 1-0 or 2-1 loss because the opposing goalkeeper was just having one hell of a game? That’s the impact that better quality between the posts can give you. It’s being able to hold onto those narrow leads and grind out results under pressure.
Don’t get me wrong, Guzan will go down as a legendary member of the club and deserves all of the praise for helping Atlanta United reach the heights that it has. However, the team needs a goalkeeper that it can rely on to make the tough saves in clutch moments and recent data shows that Guzan can’t be that guy anymore.