Well, we’re here.
There’s been plenty of digital ink spilled about the United States men’s national team heading into the 2026 World Cup — did Mauricio Pochettino get the roster right, does this group have the same passion as the teams of the 1990s, can it meet the moment of co-hosting the World Cup, and the like. Plenty more words will be written throughout the course of the next few weeks, some optimistic, some pessimistic.
By the time the final whistle blows on Friday’s World Cup Group D match between the United States and Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, the only thing that will matter is the result.
By then, we should have at least a halfway decent idea of how this American side will fare in the tournament. A win sets the USMNT up to qualify for the knockout round (the bare minimum expectation) with a victory over Australia in Seattle on June 19. A draw or loss not only intensifies the pressure (as much as Christian Pulisic hates talking about pressure) heading into next Friday’s match against the Socceroos, but it will be a disappointing first impression for a program simply looking to get the average American invested in the sport of soccer outside of every 3-4 years.
In short, the USMNT has to, and should, beat Paraguay. No excuses.
The scoop on Paraguay
I’ve already written about Paraguay’s outlook for its first World Cup since 2010, but here’s more of what you need to know.
La Albirroja is led by Argentinian Gustavo Alfaro, who took over for Daniel Garnero in August 2024 after Paraguay failed to win a group stage match in that year’s Copa America. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Alfaro primarily tends to utilize a 4-4-2 or, more commonly, a 4-2-3-1 formation. Although he tinkered with a 3-4-3 and 5-4-1 diamond early in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, don’t expect to see either in the World Cup.
After Alfaro took the reins, Paraguay went unbeaten in its next nine qualifying matches (5-0-4), including wins at home over Brazil (1-0) and Argentina (2-1). After a 1-0 loss in Brazil in June 2025, it secured passage to the tournament after a 0-0 draw against Ecuador on September 5.
This isn’t the strongest side in CONMEBOL, but they’re certainly no pushover, either.
The biggest questions for the USMNT going into the Paraguay match
The backline. Tim Ream and Chris Richards are the center-back pairing we’ll see throughout the tournament, but Ream is turning 39 in October and Richards is dealing with an ankle injury. If Richards can’t go, the USMNT’s options at right center-back are Mark McKenzie and Miles Robinson, a pair of players who, let’s say, haven’t exactly covered themselves with glory. If Ream goes down, Auston Trusty is the only left-footed CB on the roster, but we’ll see how exactly and how much the 27-year-old features.
Who will start in goal? Matt Freese and Matt Turner split the send-off matches against Senegal and Germany. Turner has the advantage of experience and having been the U.S. starter in 2022, as well as being in strong form for the New England Revolution. Freese hasn’t enjoyed quite the club form as Turner, but has remained in the mix to get the nod going into Friday.
USMNT vs. Paraguay head-to-head
The United States leads the all-time series 5-2-0 and has won the last three meetings between the two countries. That includes November 15’s 2-1 friendly at Subaru Park outside Philadelphia, which saw Folarin Balogun score what proved to be the match-winner in the 71st minute. Paraguay’s last win came on March 29, 2011, in a friendly at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.
USMNT vs. Paraguay prediction: USA 2-1 PAR
Paraguay nicks one, but the U.S. comes out on top in front of what should be a vibrant crowd in Southern California.