The USMNT had little trouble with Paraguay during a 4-1 win in its World Cup opener last Friday at SoFi Stadium to start Group D play. Next up: a meeting with Australia at Lumen Field.
Just about everything went right for the U.S. against Miguel Almirón and La Albirroja. Just about everything, that is, except coming out of it injury-free. The main headline leading into the match against the Socceroos is Christian Pulisic, after he missed the second half of the opener with a calf injury. Everything points to it being minor, though Pulisic did train separately from his teammates this week and has been ruled questionable against Australia.
The scoop on Australia
Australia’s no pushover: it’s currently ranked 22nd in the world. In its first group-stage match on Sunday, it picked up a 2-0 win over Türkiye with goals from Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe.
The Socceroos are in their seventh all-time World Cup, making it to the knockout stage in 2022 before falling 2-1 to eventual champion Argentina. Their qualifying run in AFC saw them begin 6-0-0 before losing to Bahrain and drawing Indonesia before eventually righting the ship and finishing second in their group.
Tony Popovic, who won 59 caps with Australia and was a member of its 2006 World Cup team, replaced Graham Arnold as head coach in September 2024. He went with a 3-4-3 formation against Türkiye, conceding a good bit of possession (72%-28%) as the Crescent Stars forced Patrick Beach to make eight saves. In the end, though, the scoreline favored the Socceroos.
The biggest question for the USMNT going into the Australia match
Will Christian Pulisic play? Of course, the last thing Mauricio Pochettino wants to do is risk his star’s long-term fitness, but that’s with the caveat that a win could see the U.S. guaranteed first place in the group by the end of the day. Does this open the door to a start for Gio Reyna, a player Pochettino has maintained trust in despite poor club form (and who rewarded that trust against Paraguay)? The bigger question: Is the U.S. good enough without Pulisic to beat Australia?
Advancement scenarios for the USMNT and Australia
- A USMNT win guarantees a spot in the knockout stage. A win, plus dropped points for Türkiye against Paraguay, means the U.S. wins Group D.
- Conversely, Australia secures a Round of 32 spot with a win. If Paraguay also drop points against Türkiye, the Socceroos win the group.
- If the U.S. drops points against Australia, Paraguay is eliminated from knockout stage contention with a loss to Türkiye.
- If the U.S. win or draw Australia, Türkiye is eliminated from knockout stage contention with a loss to Paraguay.
USMNT vs. Australia head-to-head
The United States leads the all-time series 2-1-1. Australia won the first meeting, a 1-0 friendly in 1992, but the U.S. hasn’t lost to the Socceroos since then. Their last meeting was eight months ago, a 2-1 USMNT win at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park.
USMNT vs. Australia prediction: USA 1-1 AUS
I don’t expect the U.S. to have as many goals in it as it did against Paraguay. This one will be a more defensive affair, with the USMNT needing to wait until the group stage finale against Türkiye to officially clinch a spot in the knockout round.