Believe it or not, Atlanta United are actually getting better

You, dear reader, likely noticed the headline as you settled in to read this. “Atlanta United are actually getting better?” you may have said. “Are we watching the same team?” And I get it! This team has played more bad football than good over the past six years or so. Its crowning achievement post-COVID has been beating arguably the best MLS team ever assembled in a three-match playoff series.

Today, as I write this, this is still not a good team. They’re still prone to defensive breakdowns, look listless in attack most of the time, have two DPs that have vastly underperformed, and are badly talent-deficient in critical parts of the roster. Take another look, though, and things certainly look as if they’re trending upward.

Over its last nine matches, Atlanta United are 4-2-3. A look at the underlying numbers shows that their xGF (expected goals for) was 15.39 in that span (11th-highest in MLS), meaning that at 13 actual goals scored, they actually slightly underperformed versus their underlying numbers. But they overperformed a little defensively, giving up 12 actual goals against an xGA (expected goals allowed) of 14.37 (10th-lowest in the league). And their xPts (expected points) were 13.56 (slightly below their actual point total of 15), or just over 1.50 per game.

None of these are great, per se, but certainly better than the first 18 games. Atlanta’s xGF was 24.69, the seventh-lowest total in the league. It still underperformed, but at 19 goals scored, it was to a much greater degree (-5.69). It underperformed defensively, giving up 33 goals against an xGA of 30.81 (+2.19), and had an xPts total of 21.42, or a paltry 1.19 per game.

But back to the past few weeks, and it’s tough to say last year’s group (or even pre-World Cup Atlanta United) would have picked up some of the same results. Despite seeing a 1-0 lead at Minnesota United disappear, they rallied for a 2-1 win behind Tristan Muyumba’s equalizer. They trailed Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami 2-1 until the latter stages, when Breel Embolo won a penalty and scored from the spot to help his new team walk off the pitch with a point. Their away win at Portland tested their mettle as they were able to successfully see things out after Alexey Miranchuk’s stunner just before the half-hour mark. Even their 2-2 draw against NYCFC saw them claw back from two one-goal deficits. (Don’t forget: this team was minutes away from beating the Philadelphia Union with 10 men and played Nashville SC even coming out of the break before ultimately conceding.)

It’s clear that the mentality of this team is, slowly but surely, changing. After a disastrous 2025, you could tell that Atlanta United’s collective psyche was shot. They were saying all the right things, but from watching their body language in the locker room, I couldn’t help but wonder if deep down inside, they actually believed it. After Saturday’s draw against NYCFC, there was obvious disappointment, but the mood was certainly lighter than what it previously was.

And the individual performances, for the most part, have been improving. No one can say Lucas Hoyos is an MLS Best XI goalkeeper, but he’s in much better form than he previously was. Paulo Díaz and Júnior Alonso have stepped up in some key moments. Cooper Sanchez has been solid. Muyumba can be maddeningly inconsistent, but came through with some of his best play in a while in August. The outside backs, Elías Báez and Tomás Jacob, have seen their youth put on display but have shown promise, especially Jacob. I generally have liked what I’ve seen from Giuliano Galoppo and Mauricio Amaro so far. That’s not to mention Jay Fortune (who is recovering from injury but barely puts a foot wrong), Adrian Gill (who filled in admirably when called upon), and Fafa Picault (who has popped up with a few key moments).

That’s not to say all is good here. This is, after all, the same team that played a 0-0 snoozer against D.C. United and looked mostly out of its depth against Charlotte FC and Orlando City. Miranchuk and Miguel Almirón have been massive disappointments. Embolo looks as if he’ll be better than Latte Lath, but it hasn’t translated to goals, which, to be fair, may be more down to a lack of opportunities from his fellow DPs. Muyumba (who is out of contract at the end of the season) is, again, maddeningly inconsistent. There’s still a massive hole on the wing that has needed to be filled for a while.

All that aside, it’s clear that Tata Martino and this roster is making some progress. Will that result in a playoff spot? I’m not sure. But if the front office can make some tough but necessary decisions in the winter while making the attack a priority, I’ll be feeling a lot better about Atlanta United headed into the sprint season than I have in a while.