Whether or not you consider the Wild Card round a legitimate part of the MLS Cup Playoffs, one thing is clear: Atlanta United had no business being in it.
But every scenario the Five Stripes needed — save one — fell into place on Decision Day. Despite CF Montreal beating New York City FC 2-0, Charlotte FC dismantled D.C. United 3-0 at Audi Field and FC Cincinnati topped the Philadelphia Union 2-1 in Chester. While those matches were ending, Atlanta was left to sweat out a 2-1 win (the most important piece of the puzzle) that nearly wasn’t.
Which brings us to Tuesday’s Eastern Conference Wild Card match at State Saputo that will have just a little bit of narrative attached to it thanks to CF Montreal’s in-form striker that you may have heard of.
Montreal has had Atlanta’s number this season, but Atlanta will be hoping that the momentum of an emotional Decision Day win can carry over and put them in the playoffs proper. They understand that every match from here on out is one more match than they were expected to play in the first place, and while the official postseason motto is “Unite the 404”, it’s “FEA” inside the locker room and the training facilities.
How CF Montreal got here
Montreal had a much more straightforward path to the postseason, only needing a win against New York City to make the Wild Card round. Laurent Courtois’s team enters on a nice 5-1-1 run in their last seven matches.
You’re allowed to take the cynic’s view here and note that two of those wins came against opponents below the playoff line (Chicago Fire and San Jose Earthquakes), but two came against a pair of very credible opponents in Charlotte FC and New York City on Saturday. The fifth one, of course, came against Atlanta.
I’ll raise my hand here and say that I thought Montreal was dead in the water heading into September. But while they haven’t always played the prettiest football, they’ve gotten results, thanks in part to Josef Martinez, who was quite good at the back end of the regular season.
Players To Watch
Atlanta United
Sometimes, all it takes is one player to rise to the occasion, and that player for Atlanta has been Saba Lobjanidze. Yes, it hasn’t always shown up on the scoresheet: at 9g/3a, his xG/Xa is 10.6/3.8, which feels like it should be a lot more. But Saba’s tenacity and energy is as much a reason why Atlanta is in this position as anything else. He scored the opening goal on Decision Day against Orlando City to set the tone for the remainder of the match, and if there’s anyone that can step things up even further however long this postseason run goes on, it’s him.
Also, give Brad Guzan his flowers. He’s Atlanta’s MVP this season.
CF Montreal
I mentioned Josef Martinez earlier being key to Montreal’s success over the past few weeks, because he’s in about as rich a vein of form as he’s experienced since leaving Atlanta. Headed into September 21’s match against the Chicago Fire, he had five goals. Over the final five matches of the regular season, he’s scored six times, including a brace against Atlanta on October 2 and on on Decision Day against New York City.
The History
Of course, Montreal has taken both meetings in the regular season. On July 13 at Stade Saputo, CFM pulled ahead 1-0 on a rare goal from Ruan before Atlanta went down to 10 men after Stian Gregersen was shown a red card. In the return fixture on October 2 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Martinez’s two-goal effort was key to a 2-1 win that we all thought meant the end of Atlanta’s playoff hopes altogether.
Yet here we are. What’s the old adage about it being tougher to beat a team three times in one season?
Availabilty Reports
Atlanta United
Out: Edwin Mosquera (knee); Quentin Westberg (concussion protocol)
CF Montreal
Out: None.
Predicted Starting XI
Prediction: CF Montreal 1-2 Atlanta United
Call it a hunch, but Atlanta’s playing with house money right now, and that’s a dangerous thing. They’ll keep the dream alive as Saba and Alexey Miranchuk score north of the border to set up a showdown with Lionel Messi and Inter Miami.
Let’s do this, never thought we would be here.
We have a chance.
I’d play Saba as the left winger, Lennon as a right winger and bring in Ron Hernandez as right back.
Although, Wolff hasn’t actually been as bad lately in his minutes on the wing, so I don’t hate it. It’s interesting how Xande has fallen so far out of favor that not only is he behind Mosquera, but also behind Wolff… I wonder if he’s not even looking good in training these days?
You spoke it into existence