Expectations for Atlanta United in 2024

We are t-minus a month and a half away from the 2024 season kicking off and Atlanta United returning to MLS play. Time flies, y’all, and a lot has changed since the Five Stripes’ playoff elimination at the hands of eventual champion Columbus Crew.

Garth Lagerwey and Co. have been very busy during the winter transfer window to make Atlanta United as competitive as possible in 2024. Now that the bulk of the new signings for this window seem to be either done or very close, it’s a good time to lay out some reasonable expectations for the upcoming season.

Potent Attack

If there’s one thing Atlanta United is know for, it’s loving trains. If there’s two things Atlanta United is known for, it’s loving trains and hitting like one on the attack. Five Stripe alumni have been among some of the best attackers in the league and the club has been one of the top three scoring MLS teams for four of the seven seasons it has played. This season should be no different.

With each passing day it seems that Thiago Almada, who many assumed would leave the team this winter, will remain until the summer. Boasting an impressive return of 13 goals and 16 assists across all competitions last season, the team relies on him to pull the strings in midfield and create threats from set pieces. Keeping the 2023 MLS MVP finalist around already presents the foundation for an intimidating offense.

Then add in two talented wingers like Xande Silva and Saba Lobjanidze who made an instant impact for the Five Stripes by contributing a total of seven goals and two assists since arriving this past summer. Atlanta United will now get to start a full season with both of them who will play alongside Almada and newfound talisman striker Giorgos Giakoumakis who has serious possibilities of winning the 2024 MLS Golden Boot after a 17-goal debut season last year.

Most of the depth options aren’t bad either. Homegrown Tyler Wolff experienced a breakout season last year with six goals and an assist across all competitions while 22-year-old Edwin Mosquera seems to have found his scoring spark with four goals.

Given the impressive attacking arsenal the team has at its disposal, there should be little trouble creating chances and scoring many goals. The team scored 66 goals last season, so I’m going to go a little higher and set the bar at 73 goals scored this season – three higher than the club record of 70 in 2017 and 2018.

CONCACAF Champions Cup Qualification

It’s been three years since Atlanta United last played a match in CONCACAF. It’s been so long that the competition has since changed its name. When the Five Stripes last made it to CONCACAF Champions League, just five MLS teams could qualify. For the expanded CONCACAF Champions Cup that starts this year, up to nine MLS teams can make it.

I don’t know about you, but I think it’s about time Atlanta gets back into continental competition, so my next expectation is going to be qualifying for CCC.

There are many ways to claim a CCC spot. Most of them involve winning the different competitions held throughout the season: Lamar Hunt US Open Cup, Leagues Cup, Supporters’ Shield and MLS Cup. However, there are also spots for the runner-up and third place finishers of Leagues Cup, the winner of the conference opposite the Supporters’ Shield winner and the next two teams in the Supporters’ Shield rankings who have not already qualified.

This means that there are plenty of opportunities for the Five Stripes to clinch a spot even if it doesn’t win a title this year. The team’s best bet for qualification is probably to focus on its place in the Supporters’ Shield rankings since four of the nine CCC berths rely on them. It can actually be easier to qualify this way if teams that finish above Atlanta earn CCC spots through other means.

Supporters’ Shield and Eastern Conference

The Supporters’ Shield and Eastern Conference are marathons – you’ve got to be good for most of the season to place higher, so consistency is key. Let’s take a look at the roster the Five Stripes have assembled so far:

From the chart, we can see a very solid starting XI supplemented by good depth pieces in several areas.

The midfield looks much stronger than it did at this point last season. Those who regularly watch Atlanta United likely didn’t take long to notice the massive improvement that came with Tristan Muyumba’s signing last summer. The French midfielder effectively uses his pace and ability to break free from pressure and progress play. He also was not afraid to put in a strong tackle when needed (sometimes a bit too unafraid). With news emerging of Polish defensive midfielder Bartosz Slisz being close to joining, it seems Atlanta is nearing completion of an interesting midfield that excels at building up with a series of short passes. This very much plays into the style that the team carries from last season and should see higher possession numbers, greater control through midfield and more potential for creating chances up top.

My main concern right now are the fullbacks. Caleb Wiley and Brooks Lennon are good starters and it’s rare that either of them miss time due to injury, but one must always be prepared. While Ronald Hernandez and Aiden McFadden should be enough to hold it down at least until the summer, I would certainly feel much better bringing in an additional reinforcement to the left back position.

Another thing to think about are FIFA callups. Unfortunately, MLS thinks its a great idea to play through international breaks, which means that the Five Stripes will be forced to enter those games with rotated lineups. Atlanta United plays six matches during FIFA windows this season and has the potential to be without one or more of the following:

• Bartosz Slisz – Poland
• Efrain Morales – Bolivia
• Giorgos Giakoumakis – Greece
• Jay Fortune – Trinidad and Tobago
• Luis Abram – Peru
• Ronald Hernandez – Venezuela
• Saba Lobjanidze – Georgia
• Stian Gregersen – Norway
• Thiago Almada – Argentina

There are a lot of starters on that last. Six starters, to be exact. Missing those players will make it that much more challenging to earn results during those six games, so it’s important to earn as many points possible when at full strength.

Given all of this and the strength of the other teams in the League (particularly the East which is pretty stacked right now), I’m going to set the benchmark at 3rd in the Eastern Conference and 5th in the Supporters’ Shield.

I believe the Five Stripes have what it takes to at least earn a home playoff spot and wouldn’t be surprised to see them competing for the Supporters’ Shield. However, I fall short of expecting them to finish top two due to some concerns about the level of depth in some areas.

Sitting behind Giakoumakis at striker is Jamal Thiare who still has yet to prove whether he’s the right guy to take over in the Greek’s absence. Look at the number 10 and you see Nick Firmino, a player brought up from the 2s this season, as the sole player behind Almada who will likely be absent for most of the matches during Copa America in late June to mid July. The question will end up being how well can Firmino fill Almada’s shoes and whether the team can adapt to the differences in play.

I’m sure that as we get more data points this season, we’ll get a better idea of what to expect from certain players on the squad, but this is what we have for now.

I don’t want to end this post on a pessimistic note, so I’ll say this: I’m excited about this season. I think there’s a lot of potential for Atlanta to advance deep into some competitions and maybe add to the trophy cabinet this year. If you thought the quality of soccer was good at the end of last season, I can practically assure you it will be even better this year.

Man, I can’t wait to get back in the Benz again. How about you?