Atlanta United is creating excellent chances, but needs better finishing

Heading into 2025, Atlanta United was supposed to have one of the most feared attacking arsenals in Major League Soccer, boasting approximately $50 million in star power. Instead, it appears to be firing with wet gunpowder.

18 games into the season, the Five Stripes sit at a lowly 13th in the Eastern Conference with just 17 points and a 4-9-5 record. Its attack, which drew lofty expectations from many pundits, has been shut out eight times this year.

There are a myriad of reasons for Atlanta United’s struggles this season, but chief among them is the drastically underperforming offense, which has managed just 21 goals. That’s why I want to dive into some of the numbers concerning the Five Stripes’ chance creation and finishing to see where the club stands compared to other teams in MLS.

Alexey Miranchuk at his best

Alexey Miranchuk has received loads of criticism from many around the league (myself included) for his disappointing output early in the season, but he has found arguably his best form since arriving in Atlanta a little under a year ago.

A few months back, I published an article detailing why moving Miranchuk out of the traditional No. 10 role and into a deeper midfield role could be better for him and the team. Dropping him back worked… kinda.

Originally, my argument was to play him as the No. 8 in a double pivot alongside Bartosz Slisz or Jay Fortune to give Miguel Almiron the No. 10 spot that he excelled in back in 2017-18, but Miggy’s production was barely better after that adjustment. Head Coach Ronny Deila fiddled around with the lineup for a few games, trying both Almiron and Miranchuk in a variety of positions before finding one that seemed to do the trick: run Miranchuk as a right center midfielder and Almiron as a second striker.

Moving to an RCM in a single pivot midfield trio has seemingly helped get the best out of Miranchuk, who has helped the team win two of its last four games in that role. The main thing this changed was that he started operating more out of the right half space, which places him in a great position to associate with Saba Lobjanidze as he runs up the right side, Latte Lath as he makes diagonal runs up top and Miguel Almiron as he runs around doing whatever his heart desires.

Moving him out of the central attacking midfield position also reduces the pressure on him, which allows him the time and space to play more accurate balls over the top.

It is also helping him play more through balls, which was the whole idea behind this Atlanta attack going into the season. According to FBref, the team only registered five through balls in its first 12 games, in which the team scored 13 goals. That made Atlanta the team with the fewest through balls in the league this season. Fast forward to now, and there is a noticeable difference: 11 through balls in the past six games, six of which came from Miranchuk.

With the increase in through balls, the team scored eight goals and went on a 2-3-1 record, averaging 1.5 non-penalty xG (npxG) compared to 1.23 npxG in its first 12 games.

This burst in productivity from Miranchuk has made him statistically one of the best chance creators in the league.

Alexey Miranchuk’s stats as of Jun. 21, 2025 (per FBRef)

• 4.9 xAG (6th in MLS)
• 7 through balls (13th in MLS)
• 32 key passes (20th in MLS)
• 4.12 shot-creating actions per 90 (34th in MLS)

In addition, Miranchuk ranks 12th among MLS attacking midfielders in passing goals added (a measure of how each of a player’s passes affects their team’s chances of scoring or conceding) with 0.01. That isn’t too far from some of the most productive midfielders in the league, like FC Cincinnati’s Evander (0.04) and Orlando City’s Martin Ojeda (0.05).

So the main engine of this team is starting to gain momentum, but the team has the 10th fewest goals scored in the league (21). Why is that? Well…

It takes two to score a goal

While the chance creation seems to be there for the Five Stripes, the team is severely lacking in quality finishing.

For a while, I’ve stuck to the argument that the team’s scoring problems have been a result of not getting the ball to its big-money striker Emmanuel Latte Lath. However, the numbers suggest that the Ivorian striker is not making the most of his chances compared to other forwards around the league.

The eye test shows it, too. Just look at this golden chance wasted against FC Cincinnati.

According to American Soccer Analysis, Latte Lath is eighth among MLS strikers in overall goals added (0.35), but a significant contributor to that is his receiving goals added (0.22). On the other hand, his shooting goals added (0.08) rank him 16th among MLS strikers. That essentially means that Latte Lath is putting in the work to latch onto difficult passes (like through balls/long balls into space), but the shots that he is taking are not as good as those of top strikers in the league.

This is supported by seeing how many shots Latte Lath puts on target compared to the touches he has inside the box.

In the chart above, you can see that there are forwards, like Seattle’s Danny Musovski or Philadelphia’s Tai Baribo, that have a relatively low amount of touches in the penalty area, but take an above-average amount of shots on target, according to the line of best fit. Then there’s Inter Miami’s Lionel Messi, who, as expected, takes waaaaaaaay better shots with a relatively average number of touches.

So, where does Latte Lath fall? This season, he has 73 touches in the attacking penalty area – a relatively average number for MLS strikers – but he falls below average in the quality of his shots with just 13 on target.

Now, let’s put the shot conversion and chance creation together to see just where Atlanta United stands compared to other teams around the league.

Here you can see the data suggesting that Atlanta United is creating chances that are above average in quality, even scoring higher than teams like Nashville SC, LAFC, Minnesota United and FC Cincinnati, but falls short when it comes to putting the resulting shots on target.

Pair this wasteful finishing with one of the worst defenses in the league (34 goals allowed) that seems to give goals away like candy on Halloween, and you get a lot of context for why the Five Stripes are in such a poor position in the 2025 season.

Let’s try to end this on a positive note, shall we?

Atlanta United’s chances are getting better as a result of the increase in completed through balls from its last few games. These are the types of chances that we were told would best suit Latte Lath, and I think that makes sense given that his main selling point was his speed. This team has been playing too often this season in a way that doesn’t play to Latte Lath’s strengths – having him play almost as a target man at times and receive the ball with his back to goal. I think that is slowly changing with the types of chances being created and this should give him a good shot (pun intended) at finding his scoring form.